The Failure of the Worthless Shepherds (Jeremiah 23:1-2).
YHWH passes His verdict on the false rulers who have failed His people. Note the dual double repetition of ‘the word of YHWH' in Jeremiah 23:1-4 indicating the seriousness of His words, two referring to His judgments, and two to His restorative activity.
“Woe to the shepherds who destroy,
And scatter the sheep of my pasture! The word of YHWH.”
A woe is declared on the rulers who have destroyed and scattered, and are destroying and scattering, (literally ‘the destroying and scattering ones of') the sheep of YHWH's pasture, the people of the land. And this is the ‘sure and certain word of YHWH'. Such ‘woes' are a common prophetic way of describing a situation which God will visit in judgment (see Jeremiah 22:13; Isaiah 3:9-11; Isaiah 5:8-25; Isaiah 10:1 etc; Ezekiel 13:3; Ezekiel 34:2; Micah 2:1). In contrast YHWH is depicted as the true Shepherd of His people (‘the sheep of My pasture', ‘My flock' (Jeremiah 23:2)). He had appointed under-shepherds, but they had failed.
‘Therefore thus says YHWH, the God of Israel, against the shepherds who feed my people,
“You have scattered my flock,
And driven them away,
And have not visited them.
Behold, I will visit on you the evil of your doings,
The word of YHWH.”
But YHWH will call these under-shepherds to account. For whereas they should have been feeding His people they have in fact scattered them and driven them away, and have failed to care for them and watch over them (to ‘visit' them). And because of that YHWH will ‘visit' on the under-shepherds the evil of their doings. (Note the play in words on the term ‘visit'). And this is the sure and certain ‘word of YHWH'.
The scattering of His people was widespread in Egypt, Assyria, Babylon, Elam, etc. See Isaiah 11:11. But when the land was open and available many would return.