The Coming One (3:11-17).
John's large-scale ministry having been established in these few verses, Matthew now turns his attention to Jesus. We do not know how long John had been preaching before this incident now described occurred, but that he had a widespread and effective ministry, possibly over a number of years, Josephus also testifies. What we do know from external sources is that his ministry was so effective and so far reaching that disciples of John were found around the world for decades to come (compare Acts 18:24-25; Acts 19:1-6).
But John was ever aware that he was preaching in readiness for ‘the last days' and that the Coming One would soon arrive. This was central to his message. And yet, as his later doubts would reveal, he no more than anyone else was expecting someone like Jesus. He was anticipating someone a little more fierce and somewhat more politically active than Jesus, and as he later lay in prison waiting for the great movement and climactic events that he thought would be necessary in order to justify what he had taught, he could not understand why so little seemed to be happening (Matthew 11:3). He genuinely began to wonder whether Jesus really was the Coming One. Like so many, he had in the end a wrong appreciation of the Kingly Rule of Heaven, even though he understood what lay at its roots. It was its outworking that he could not understand.
But at this stage he had no doubts about Jesus' superiority, even though he had not yet learned the full truth about Him. Jesus was his cousin, and he knew enough about Him to recognise and acknowledge His infinite superiority to himself. (There is no reason to think that John had cut off all communication with his wider family after his parents had died, especially as he must have known something about the mystery of Jesus' birth, even if not the full story). Here was One Whom he knew put his own life to shame. And now God would shortly reveal to him that Jesus was indeed the Coming One, for he himself would witness His being anointed by the Holy Spirit (an experience made very clear in John 1:32-34).
Analysis of Matthew 3:11-17.
a “I indeed baptise you in water to repentance, but He who comes after me is mightier than I, whose shoes I am not worthy to bear” (Matthew 3:11 a).
b “He will baptise you in the Holy Spirit and fire, Whose winnowing fork is in His hand, and he will thoroughly cleanse his threshing-floor, and He will gather his wheat into the garner, but the chaff He will burn up with unquenchable fire” (Matthew 3:11-12)
c Then comes Jesus from Galilee to the Jordan to John, to be baptised by him (Matthew 3:13).
d But John would have prevented him, saying, “I have need to be baptised of you, and do you come to me?” (Matthew 3:14).
c But Jesus answering said to him, “Allow it now, for thus it becomes us to fulfil all righteousness (or ‘do fully what is right').” Then he allows him (Matthew 3:15).
b And Jesus when He was baptised, went up immediately from the water, and lo, the heavens were opened to Him, and he saw the Spirit of God descending as a dove, and coming on Him (Matthew 3:16).
a And lo, a voice out of the heavens, saying, “This is my beloved Son, in whom I am well pleased” (Matthew 3:17).
Note that in ‘a' John is aware of Jesus' holiness and righteousness, and that He is the Mightier One, and in the parallel it is confirmed by God, that He is His beloved Son, and that He is well pleasing to Him. In ‘b' He is the One Who will ‘baptise' (drench) in the Holy Spirit and fire, and in the parallel He is depicted as receiving the Holy Spirit for that purpose. In ‘c' Jesus comes to John in order to be baptised by him, and in the parallel He persuades him to do it. Centrally in ‘d' is John's declaration that it is he who should be baptised by Jesus. That Jesus is greater than he.